Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 1051.790850 1209.810114 1392.586609 1621.798514 1904.649916 2246.408371 2.697046e+03
2024-10-13 811.050199 1000.439485 1241.992047 1580.279383 2054.753836 2717.880111 3.756625e+03
2024-10-20 691.551770 887.548474 1152.104302 1548.247189 2151.069526 3080.544838 4.730357e+03
2024-10-27 597.984852 790.372626 1061.368680 1488.741848 2183.019755 3345.178600 5.649329e+03
2024-11-03 557.748541 758.960793 1054.756785 1546.766665 2403.426946 3973.568674 7.516411e+03
2024-11-10 520.160577 725.205151 1037.700931 1581.988798 2590.071416 4600.029660 9.752156e+03
2024-11-17 487.988788 694.953381 1020.588240 1611.839135 2771.512652 5279.151556 1.260382e+04
2024-11-24 450.458355 651.891096 976.620305 1585.571228 2835.659247 5725.368385 1.518302e+04
2024-12-01 427.640987 629.690299 964.140549 1614.109945 3018.957000 6529.812074 1.976140e+04
2024-12-08 411.158081 615.941240 964.020530 1665.550116 3265.695480 7617.453739 2.694504e+04
2024-12-15 390.905300 593.814392 946.234124 1678.228874 3425.706519 8544.304234 3.509526e+04
2024-12-22 369.153051 567.173028 917.244215 1662.787863 3512.658377 9294.507092 4.398360e+04
2024-12-29 354.539983 553.126037 912.739924 1705.463314 3782.158387 10917.476343 6.487534e+04
2025-01-05 330.159325 519.967590 868.843254 1654.717509 3786.356913 11585.736896 8.138900e+04
2025-01-12 310.527222 493.673387 835.371239 1622.145217 3834.094643 12485.583458 1.065028e+05
2025-01-19 289.621257 463.521095 791.439021 1558.478725 3772.016860 12872.918148 1.286218e+05
2025-01-26 283.018697 459.237451 798.946695 1620.294568 4126.722445 15638.416441 2.327963e+05
2025-02-02 274.552463 450.723117 796.787591 1657.769554 4418.335898 18471.371065 4.300823e+05
2025-02-09 266.196727 441.741046 792.660892 1689.566947 4705.646613 21740.543580 8.855275e+05
2025-02-16 253.676064 423.803715 767.645600 1661.588378 4761.488332 23533.487613 1.522700e+06
2025-02-23 246.590120 416.031049 764.039136 1691.984985 5062.370113 27832.610621 4.688484e+06
2025-03-02 241.670516 412.180446 768.703216 1746.802849 5494.003771 34414.182739 4.249617e+07
2025-03-09 234.202077 402.673111 759.663986 1760.319937 5754.950487 40114.825157 9.478728e+09